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Posted on November 29, 2018 - 10:37 AM
by Jacob Skiles
When it comes to buying or selling a home there are many factors you should consider. Where you want to live, why you want to buy or sell, and who will help you along your journey are just some of those factors. When it comes to today’s real estate market, though, the top two factors to consider are what’s happening with interest rates & inventory.
Mortgage interest rates have been on the rise and are now over three-quarters of a percentage point higher than they were at the beginning of the year. According to Freddie Mac’s latestPrimary Mortgage Market Survey, rates climbed to 4.72% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage last week.
The interest rate you secure when buying a home not only greatly impacts your monthly housing costs, but also impacts your purchasing power.
Purchasing power, simply put, is the amount of home you can afford to buy for the budget you have available to spend. As rates increase, the price of the house you can afford to buy will decrease if you plan to stay within a certain monthly housing budget.
The chart below shows the impact that rising interest rates would have if you planned to purchase a $400,000 home while keeping your principal and interest payments between $2,020-$2,050 a month.
With each quarter of a percent increase in interest rate, the value of the home you can afford decreases by 2.5% (in this example, $10,000). Experts predictthat mortgage rates will be over 5% by this time next year.
A ‘normal’ real estate market requires there to be a 6-month supply of homes for sale in order for prices to increase only with inflation. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), listing inventory is currently at a 4.3-month supply (still well below the 6-months needed), which has put upward pressure on home prices. Home prices have increased year-over-year for the last 78 straight months.
The inventory of homes for sale in the real estate market had been on a steady decline and experienced year-over-year drops for 36 straight months (from July 2015 to May 2018), but we are starting to see a shift in inventory over the last three months.
The chart below shows the change in housing supply over the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months. As you can see, in June, July, and August, inventory levels have started to increase as compared to the same time last year.
This is a trend to watch as we move further into the fall and winter months. If we continue to see an increase in homes for sale, we could start moving further away from a seller’s market and closer to a normal market.
If you are planning to enter the housing market, either as a buyer or a seller, let’s get together to discuss the changes in mortgage interest rates and inventory and what they could mean for you.
Thank you for visiting today. If this is your first visit, take your time and look around. I have plenty of information and resources available to you. If you are a return visitor, thank you. I would love to hear from you and tell you how I can serve all your real estate needs.
Listing Information Copyright 2018 Multiple Listing Service of Lake Ozarks Board of REALTORS®, Inc. Listing Information Copyright 2018 Multiple Listing Service of Bagnell Dam Association of REALTORS® MLS, Inc. The data relating to real estate for sale on this website comes in part courtesy of the Broker Reciprocity Internet Data Exchange Program of the Multiple Listing Service of Lake Ozarks Board of REALTORS®, Inc. The data relating to real estate for sale on this website comes in part courtesy of the Broker Reciprocity Internet Data Exchange Program of the Multiple Listing Service of Bagnell Dam Association of REALTORS® MLS, Inc. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than John Farrell Real Estate are governed by MLS Rules and Regulations and detailed information about them includes the name of the listing companies. The information being provided is for consumers' personal, non-commercial use and will not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Information herein is believed to be accurate and timely, but no warranty as such is expressed or implied. Information last update on 2018-12-12